A weblog with random thoughts and reflections on society and ecology.
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Thursday, March 27, 2003
Complexity Theories & Social Change
Complexity theories (systems theories, chaos theories, fractals, gaia etc) has their origins in natural science. Still, they may offer important insights for us in understanding social systems and social change. Here are some key consepts and how they may relate to our social dimension:
- Humility
One of the main yields from complexity theories is a deeper sense of humility. Control is futile, and change is always unpredictable. There are many factors that creates this unpredictability. (a) All phenomena are aspects of one whole system, and thus intrinsicly interconnected. (b) Change is often influenced in a significant way by what appears (to us) as insignificant variables, and we cannot predict in advance which variables will be influencial and to what degree. Any real-life system is thus far too complex to be predictable.
- Partnership Approach
Complexity theories demonstrates the benefit of a partnership approach rather than a control/dominance approach: (a) All phenomena are aspects of one whole and intrinsicly interconnected. There is no us/them dichotomy, everything is "us". There is no outside. (b) Living systems are self-organizing and immensely complex. Attempts of external control is thus based on an illusion of seperation (us/them), and futile as systems tend to choose their own course, and adapt and respon in ways not completely predictable. Attempts to eradicate a virus leads to mutations. Attempts to eliminate terrorism with war leads to more terrorism. A partnership approach gives us the opportunity to engage in a dialogue, a dance that may lead to mutual benefits.
- Sensitive Dependence / Butterfly Effect
Change is often influenced in a significant way by what appears as insignificant variables. We cannot predict in advance which variables will be influencial and to what degree. A seemingly insignificant occurence (for instance a conversation) can change the course of events in a dramatic way.
- Sudden Changes / Bifurcation
Systems undergo sudden and dramatic changes. It may look as if nothing is happening for a long time, until the conditions are right and the change occurs faster than we expected. Again, we cannot predict accurately in advance which exact conditions are neccesary.
16:27
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